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Monte Carlo Calculator
Monte Carlo Calculator
Enter your values below and press Calculate to see your result instantly.
The Median Outcome (P50)
$21,589
OPTIMISTIC (P90)
$45,120
CONSERVATIVE (P10)
$9,410
There is a 50% probability your portfolio will exceed $21,589. Volatiltiy is your primary risk factor.
About the Monte Carlo Calculator
A Monte Carlo simulation runs thousands of random scenarios to show the range of outcomes an investment could have, not just one average result.
How to use the Monte Carlo Calculator
- Enter your Investment Capital, Expected Return (%) and Volatility / SD (%).
- Enter the Simulation Period (Yrs) and the Trial Count (up to 5,000).
- Press Run Stochastic Simulator.
Formula and method
In each trial, annual returns are drawn at random from a distribution with your expected return and volatility, and compounded over the period. The results are then summarised as percentiles (for example the worst 10%, median and best 10%).
Tips
- A wider spread means higher risk.
- More trials give a smoother estimate.
- Simulations show possibilities, not predictions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Because markets are uncertain. The simulation shows the range of outcomes, including poor ones.